Monday, January 27, 2014
I was at the Council on Foreign Relations tonight for a meeting open to all members, "U.S.-Russia Relations on the Eve of the Sochi Winter Olympics". The panelists were experts: John Beyrle, Director of the U.S. Russia Foundation and Former U.S. Ambassador to the Russian Federation; Stephen Sestanovich, George F. Kennan Senior Fellow for Russian and Eurasian Studies at the Council, and former Ambassador-at-Large for the former Soviet Union; Angela E. Stent, Professor and Director, Center for Eurasian, Russian and Eastern European Studies at Georgetown and former National Intelligence Officer for Russia and Eurasia, National Intelligence Council; and, Andrew U. Guff, Managing Director of Siguler Guff & Company, a private equity firm which has a spin-off, Russia Partners Company, L.P., which bills itself as the first institutional private equity fund investing in Russia.
The meeting was open, so I can write about what was said, which focused on the U.S.-Russia relationship in light of Russia's granting of asylum to National Security Agency "leaker" Edward Snowden, Syria, and Sochi,in that order. "Putinism" was a focus, as the Russian President dominates everything in Russia, although his success is mixed. Russia is divided between Slavophiles who support Putin, and more Western-oriented Russians. Putin projects Russia as a conservative state dedicated to traditional values upheld by the Russian Orthodox Church, a key ally. So the freeing of "Pussy Riot", Khodorkovsky and Alexei Navalny (former candidate for Moscow mayor) should not be taken as a move towards liberalization, just window dressing for the benefit of a successful Olympic Games at Sochi.
Our relationship with what is either the most western country in Asia or the most eastern country in Europe, is a roller coaster, with dramatic ups and downs every few years, followed by "resets". All the speakers suggested that it would be better if our expectations for each other were lowered: Russia is not going to become more American; and the United States is not going to make concessions to Russia as an equal, despite that country's desire for "an equal relationship between unequal partners", the country's power nowhere near what it was when it was the U.S.S.R.
On the other hand, Russia saw its opportunity when the U.S. shilly-shallied on Syria. Indeed, the two countries have a working relationship here, even if each side is chary of giving the other too much information. As to Snowden, the best guess of all the experts was that he is a "wasting asset", whose value to Putin declines by the day. The expectation is that he will not be allowed to stay beyond the year's term of asylum he was granted. (Nonetheless, the damage to the relationship of the United States with Germany by revelations of U.S. spying on the German prime minister, Angela Merkel, is without precedent in post-WWII U.S. German relations.) As to Ukraine, Russia will do everything in its power to keep it from joining the European Union. Ukraine had, until its recently achieved independence, been part of Russia since the reign of Catherine the Great. Its independence is a major thorn in Russia's side.
The corruption associated with Sochi is nothing new in Russia, although the extent of it is massive. Yet if Russia has a "good" Olympics, it will only briefly distract Russians from the more serious problem of a sinking economy. Stephen Sestanovich made the point that throughout the last decade, the Russian economy grew at twice the rate of the United States'. Now the economy is growing at a rate less than ours.
Despite an iron-fisted stage managing of the Olympics perhaps not seen since Germany in 1936, Putin stands to gain little from a successful Olympics, as his desire to stamp his name on Russian history is rivaled by the desire of many to see him go. Polls indicate that were the election held today, most Russians would vote for Putin: they also indicate that in 2018 most would like to see a candidate other than Putin stand for the office. As to the threat of a terrorist attack at Sochi, it would be an opportunity for Putin to extend his power, a confirmation of Putin and his supporters' belief that Russia can only be governed by a "strong man".
As to the security issues at Sochi during the Olympic Games, many on the panel thought the U.S. State Department's advice to athletes not to wear anything identifying them as Americans when outside the Olympic Village grounds, excessive. As to the post-Olympics future of Sochi --which Putin hopes to see become the "St. Moritz" of Russia (to his and his cronies enrichment)-- that's anyone's guess. Nevertheless, after the protests, the exposés of cronyism and corruption in Sochi, Putin can expect no "bounce" in his or Russia's standing from a successfully-run Olympics, unlike another dictator who successfully stage managed an Olympics, Hitler in Germany in 1936. That may be one after-Sochi effect to be grateful for even as we celebrate separately the athletes on the medal platforms.
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